Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School, Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND, and Ph.D. Student, Pardee RAND Graduate School. Secondly, the United States has a huge capability through international institutionsto mobilize the international community." After political support comes financial aid. For instance, the Ukrainian government perceived Russias annexation of Crimea and the ensuing disorder in 2014 as armed conflict, but from the point of view of the United States, it reflected a condition of competition below armed conflict. Militarily, the greatest threats the United States faces in competition with China and Russia are technological innovations that threaten U.S. ways of waging war and the security of the networks and systems on which its forces depend. Here, foreign perceptions may be based on very different values with far more emphasis on economics and internal security and in societies where substantial parts of the population see their own government as their primary threat or where an authoritarian regime has successfully managed to portray the United States as a hostile power or direct threat. China, in particular, is working to reshape dominant international rules, norms, and institutions in addition to growing its military capability. U.S. policy priorities should include maintaining economic and financial strength and flexibility, sustaining a lead or share of the lead in emerging technologies and industries, protecting the information environment, developing tools and techniques to support ongoing competition, and preserving current levels of U.S. influence in global institutions. Of course, this is an intentionally reductionist view and, in reality, interests will fall on a scale of greater complexity and nuance. Major Daniel Burkhart, USA, is a Strategist (FA-59) with operational experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. Photo by Paul VanDerWerf/Flickr (CC by 2.0). Due to the coronavirus outbreak, face-to-face interviewing is not currently possible in many parts of the world.. The Pew Poll focuses on a limited range of countries that broadly share the same values, political system, and economic system. Important as military and economic strength may be, the U.S. needs to be far more than the largest and most advanced economy as well as the largest and most advanced military power. Yet if political warfare is an adequate lens through which to view this strategic competition, the nonmilitary aspects of the competition might prove equally if not more important, particularly as competitors deploy robust political warfare strategies. 20 Russian Propaganda: 1984 in 2014, The Economist, March 29, 2014, 52, available at ; Putins Gambit: Russia and the Ukraine, The Economist, May 10, 2014, 49, available at ; Andrei Aliaksandrau, Brave New War: The Information War Between Russia and Ukraine, Index on Censorship 43, no. The election of Joe Biden has not fundamentally changed that. 28 Frederic Wehrey, The Authoritarian Resurgence: Saudi Arabias Anxious Autocrats, Journal of Democracy 26, no. To be an act of competition, the behavior must negatively affect another actors vital interests or suggest that future activities are likely to do so. 34 This action can take the form of concessions, surrender, negotiations, treaty, among others. Whether it is the challenge posed by the DPRK, whether it is other elements of strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, whether it's the shared challenges that all countries around the world face, like a warming climate or COVID, our cooperation in all of these areas has been important to us and important to the ROK and Japan as well. Adversaries continue to increase in sophistication, magnitude, intensity, volume and velocityendangering our national security interests and economic well-being. Frequent themes from this research include: Certain societal characteristics are associated with national competitive success, including national ambition and will, unified national identity, and shared opportunity. The military aspect of power can be employed through proxy warfare, guerrilla tactics, covert operations, or a mix of covert and overt operations. U.S. military activities are a critical component of achieving and maintaining national security interests within the condition of competition. Vladimir Putin faces no elections, no party or state institutions that threaten his rule, no domestic political opposition. However, in this case, Red is a nonstate actor with limited power and scope, negligible military might, and meager financial resources. The United States will address its relationship with the PRC from a position of strength in which we work closely with our allies and partners to defend our interests and values. More than half in most of the publics surveyed say the U.S. does not take their interests into account when it is making foreign policy decisions, although fewer feel this way in Japan, Greece and Germany. 29 Wehrey, 7185; Mona El-Naggar, Shifting Alliances Play Out Behind Closed Doors in Yemen, New York Times, January 25, 2015. This analysis offers lessons for the United States that can inform its response. Pushing a serious debate about how to address gaps in U.S. power and influence, while creating a smart and enduring strategy for addressing the many challenges Beijing poses to the liberal international order, could go a long way to better positioning the United States for its long strategic competition with China. A model provides a framework for organizing ideas wherein some aspects of reality are abstracted to produce insight regarding something of special importance. Richard K. Betts, 4th ed. There are good reasons for these limits. The following sections describe the three conditions by providing definitions, outline typical activities and a historical example reflecting each condition, and briefly illuminate ways in which the joint force could operate in the context of this model. Doubts about the U.S. considering the interests of other countries predate the Trump Administration, and this has been the prevailing view even among close U.S. allies since the Center began asking the question in 2002.. Russias behavior was consistent with the Kremlins interest in geostrategic expansion to former Soviet territories.19 By preparing the battlefield, President Vladimir Putin was able to create an opportunity to accomplish his goals without engaging the West in armed conflict. The real nature of the competition is complex and requires looking closer at the role of non-State actors and their operations. It's worth understanding how they got there. Economic activities in competition can take the form of sanctions, trade barriers, or tariffs. By Daniel Burkhart and Alison Woody Although both capitals appear committed to peacefully resolving their differences, the intensifying acrimony and distrust have raised fears among many observers that the two countries could be headed toward confrontation. Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Compared to a limited peace/war model, the conditions-based model is more descriptive in its portrayal of reality through its accounting of activities below the threshold of armed conflict. Figure Two: Foreign Trust in the United States, Figure Three: Favorable and Unfavorable Views of the Red may indeed attempt to take military action despite its relative weakness, but this enterprise is likely to result in the annihilation of Red as an actor on the international stage. It underpins the current international order, enhances collective security, helps to ensure access to global commons, enables burden-sharing, and deters conflict. /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/reports, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/blogPosts, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/multimedia, /content/admin/rand-header/jcr:content/par/header/caseStudies, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv_1658531348/wrapperdiv/teaserlist, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv_1658531348/wrapperdiv/teaserlist_942234932, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv/wrapperdiv_503294136/teaserlist_40101931, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv/wrapperdiv_503294136/teaserlist_967249453, /content/rand/nsrd/strategic-competition/jcr:content/par/wrapperdiv_1041748516/wrapperdiv_214566555/teaserlist_398531918, Evaluation of the California County Resentencing Pilot Program, Healthy Nation, Safe Nation: Build Health Security into National Security, RAND Experts Discuss the First Year of the Russia-Ukraine War, Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change, Measuring Wellbeing to Help Communities Thrive, Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research, competition with the People's Republic of China, theory and practice of strategic competition, intensifying struggle through measures other than war, U.S. Strategic Competition with China: A RAND Research Primer, China's Drive for Power and Influence Around the World, Explore more RAND research on Competition with, U.S. Cooperation with China and Russia, Artificial Intelligence, War in Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap, The Philippines Is America's New Star Ally in Asia, U.S. Strategic Competition with Russia Is Here to Stay, Confronting a More Globally Active Russia, How a Nation's Social Condition Relates to Its Global Standing, The Pandemic's Effects on Strategic Competition in Sub-Saharan Africa, RAND's National Security Research Division (NSRD). 2023 Center for Strategic & International Studies. Since rational actors behave according to their interests, the activities they employ are indicative of the condition at hand. 21 Philip Shishkin, How Russian Spy Games Are Sabotaging Ukraines Intelligence Agency, Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2015; Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, Crimea and Russias Strategic Overhaul, Parameters 44, no. It spans all aspects of state power: hard, sharp and soft; diplomatic, information, military and economic; and all domains: air, sea, land, space, cyber, technology and innovation. Washington, DC 20036. U.S. competition with China and Russia involves multiple intersecting military, economic, and geopolitical interests and has significant implications for the international order. The Aukus submarines deal, Seoul's warmer relations with Tokyo and tighter Philippine ties with the US all pose a challenge to . 30 Salisbury, 113; Wehrey, 7185; Schmitt and Worth; Kasinof. So what we have is this term that we use to describe when two countries have amassed enough military, political, and economic power such that they can compete with one another. Competitive behavior is often asymmetric and can include criminal action employed for political gain, terrorism, and annexation of foreign territory. Although strategic competition is not a new phenomenon, planning and resource processes and current U.S. military doctrine are tailored to a paradigm in which the United States views its relations with other strategic actors as binary, within a context of either peace or war. 4 (Spring 1988), 675700. The U.S. strategic focus has increasingly turned to major-power competition, but there is currently no framework for understanding U.S. competition with near-peer rivals China and Russia. 33 The conditions-based model is designed for actors in the international system. Once Red identifies the current condition it is in vis--vis Blue, it must decide whether it is advantageous to remain in this condition or to try to change the nature of relations to reflect the desired condition. U.S. favorability sees one of its steepest recoveries in years from 2020 to 2021 As the global balance of power shifts, the United States will face several complex challenges requiring innovative responses, and indeed, is already facing rivals that it cannot optimally engage. After Red cultivates an understanding of these elements, Red decisionmakers can make a determination regarding relations with Blue according to one of the three conditions: cooperation, competition below armed conflict, or armed conflict. Is the United States investing in the right tools and capabilities to counter political warfare? The graphic results of the poll communicate a very different and more important message that is driven by the partisan excess and domestic crises in the 2020 Presidential Campaign, and the poll presents a series of graphs and tables that shift away from the presidency to allied trust in the United States and faith in American democracy. HH-60 Pave Hawks from 33rd Rescue Squadron, 943rd Rescue Group, and Japan Air Self-Defense Force fly in formation behind MC-130J from 17th Special Operations Squadron during exercise Keen Sword 17, November 7, 2016, near Okinawa, Japan (U.S. Air Force/Stephen G. Eigel). The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. Here gray area and indirect warfare already tend to dominate competition with China and Russia on a global level, as do white area conflicts in trade, foreign investment, arms sales and security assistance, STEM levels of development, infrastructure, cyber, and space. See John J. Mearsheimer, Reckless States and Realism, International Relations 23, no. This competition in all features is going on in the surrounding regions of the Indian Ocean. He has served as a consultant on Afghanistan to the United States Department of Defense and the United States Department of State. In Greece and Canada, this is the highest such reading in a Pew Research Center survey, even compared with the Obama era. Figure Four: Biden, Merkel and Macron Score High in Confidence Relative to Putin and Xi, % who have confidence in __ to do the right thing regarding world affairs. 8 States may exhibit behavior that appears irrational due to imperfect information. A copy of the full text of the Pew poll and report is attached at the end of this commentary, and the documents is available online here . Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. 15 Patrick M. Cronin, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Harry Krejsa, Dynamic Balance: An Alliance Requirements Roadmap for the Asia-Pacific Region (Washington, DC: Center for a New American Security, 2016), available at . . Mazarr, Michael J., Bryan Frederick, and Yvonne K. Crane, Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition. Cooperation is strategically important for the United States. 7 U.S. Special Operations Command, The Gray Zone, white paper, September 9, 2015. Activities reflecting the condition of armed conflict are hostile in nature and employ the overt use of coercive military power against another actor in the international system.33 This use of force can target civilian or military citizens, infrastructure, or resources, and may result in adversary retaliation. 15 Military power supports and enables cooperation in many ways. Myles Cullen). Josh Chin is deputy China bureau chief for the Wall Street Journal and co-author of Surveillance State: Inside China's Quest to Launch a New Era of Social Control (St. Martin's Press), named a best book of 2022 by New Statesmen, Prospect Magazine, KQED, and others.He previously covered politics and tech as a reporter in China. The longer the war drags on, the more risks Putin might be willing to take to meet his objectives. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. While the idea of a gray zone contributes to our understanding of the operating environment given the challenge of contested norms, the joint force would benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Negative as some of the trends in Figure Two are, the Pew text states. From a regional perspective, the crisis in Yemen has become indicative of the geopolitical competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran. For instance, Red may strongly disagree with Blues environmental policy. Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, The struggle Morgenthau describes results in an evolving international distribution of power. It is all too easy to focus on the military aspects of strategic competition with China and Russia or on the political issues of the day and to instead ignore the importance of how our allies, strategic partners, and other states perceive the United States. Usually it's globally or in key strategic areas. Information operations range from deception and disinformation techniques to propaganda. It is the line under the title that sounds a critical strategic warning: But many raise concerns about health of U.S. political system. As is the case with many polls, the results need to be put in context, and it is the full range of results that count not a simple bottom line. 10:00 AM11:30 AM EDT (UTC-4) Washington, D.C. Register to attend Add to Calendar. . Additionally, it assumes rational actors, defined as states having situational awareness of their external environment and behaving logically to achieve their own goals.8 While a historical examination of state relations on a case-by-case basis would generate fewer exceptions than model-based understanding, models have great use for delineating overarching frameworks. Joint force participation in military engagement builds trust and enables information-sharing with U.S. partners.16 Joint actions such as nation assistance and foreign humanitarian assistance bolster friendly relations and cooperation efforts.17 Show of force and enforcement of sanction missions augment deterrence and assure partners of U.S. resolve. The condition of competition below armed conflict exists when two actors in the international system have incompatible high-priority interests and one or both actors engage in or intend to engage in behavior that will be detrimental to the others interests. Policymakers may more accurately understand and respond to actions of other actors, while military professionals are enabled to provide best military advice and convey intent. Although a single actor may engage in various activities reflecting different intentions, classifications of conditions are mutually exclusive. The three conditions used to categorize relationships are cooperation, competition below armed conflict, and armed conflict. 2 (April 2015), 7185; Peter Salisbury, Yemen and the Saudi-Iranian Cold War (London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2015). In all too many such states, the leadership controls every decision and aspect of power, and public opinion is largely irrelevant at least in the short run. The international community did not take military action in the conflict, most likely because analysis revealed the cost of intervention would outweigh any resultant benefits. At the local level, these events reflect a power struggle between various tribal and sectarian alliances, domestic political parties, and the military. The struggle for power is universal in time and space and is an undeniable fact of experience. "First of all, it's political support. U.S. defense investments should prioritize the rapid adoption of emerging technologies for military use, protecting innovative military systems from intellectual property theft or attack, developing capabilities to engage adversaries below the threshold of war, sustaining and deepening alliances, and developing joint concepts and capabilities to achieve short- and long-term military objectives. CSIS's International Security Program has analyzed these threats and how the United States can best deter, campaign in, and respond to gray zone approaches. As the term suggests, the gray zone is a form of competition accompanied by ambiguity concerning the actors involved, the nature of the conflict, and the relevant policy and legal frameworks.7 Revisionist actors are engaging in gray zone activities to increase their relative power in the global system. Marxism. programs offered at an independent public policy research organizationthe RAND Corporation. What might he do next? It shapes both strategic debates and real political, military and economic dynamics. The theory is a strategic choice theory that takes both states' motives and the international situation they face as given; it explores the strategic choices of rational unitary actors facing an anarchic international environment. Competitive behavior is normally covert, ambiguous, gradual, indirect, or some mixture thereof. It is composed of government processes and activities designed to alleviate a problemor related problemsand set more desirable future conditions. Joint actions to counter rival actors include security force assistance, building partner capacity to improve collective deterrence, show of force, counterterrorism, and foreign internal defense.31. The former perceives Yemen as a border-state vulnerable to Iranian influence that requires its careful attention, as illustrated by Saudi financial contributions to Yemeni domestic political actors.28 Saudi Arabia has opposed the Houthis through both direct military and economic action, reflecting a condition of armed conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.29 Iran is cooperating with the Houthi rebels by providing financial and material support.30 Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in a broad competition, not armed conflict, since Iranian forces are not openly fighting Saudi Arabian forces. Maintaining an equilibrium in the international system through a balance of power and limited cooperation are all that can be hoped for; a situation where war, large-scale violent conflict, is natural and merely "diplomacy by other means" (von Clausewitz, 1989). In the real world, it is also one of the ironies of modern military power that the cost of actually engaging in a major war is so high that mutual assured destruction is dropping from the nuclear level to the threat level conflict or any conflict where the mix of risks and direct costs is clearly higher than the value of fighting for the objective. 4 See Colin Clark, CJCS Dunford Calls for Strategic Shifts: At Peace or at War is Insufficient, Breaking Defense, September 21, 2016, available at . 3 (Autumn 2014), 8190; Dan Peleschuk, Russia Today vs. Ukraine Tomorrow, Macleans, March 16, 2015. This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. Recently, some security professionals have referred to these in-between activities as taking place in the gray zone. Strategic Competition. The election of the Philippines' new president, Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr., in May 2022 has proven exceptionally significant for Washington's security alliances in the Indo-Pacific. This forward strategy allowed the United States to observe Soviet maritime movement in the region.13 Today, both countries are invested in maintaining the status quo power balance in the Far East. 25 Eric Schmitt and Robert F. Worth, With Arms for Yemen Rebels, Iran Seeks Wider Mideast Role, New York Times, March 15, 2012; Silvana Toska, Shifting Balances of Power in Yemens Crisis, Washington Post, September 26, 2014. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. . As the Pew survey makes clear, For this report, we use data from nationally representative surveys of 16,254 adults from March 12 to May 26, 2021. By 2.0 ) Figure Two are, the more risks Putin might be willing to to. Dominant international rules, norms, and people shaping the world of international affairs strategic:! Part of the geopolitical competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran 2.0 ) of strategic competition ways! 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